Iran Macro-Economic Indicators Analysis

Overview

A data-driven macroeconomic deep dive into Iran's economy using 60+ years of annual indicators. Covers GDP cycles, inflation, currency devaluation, trade behaviour, and population trends through 12 analytical sections with time series plots, rolling averages, and Z-score anomaly detection.

Core tech: Python · pandas · NumPy · Seaborn · Matplotlib

Core features

• Full macroeconomic story spanning 6+ decades of Iran's economy (1960–2024)
• 12 deep-dive analytical sections covering GDP, inflation, exchange rates, trade, population, and industry
• Recession and crisis detection via negative GDP growth scatter highlighting and Z-score anomaly detection
• Rolling mean trend analysis (10-year window) across all major indicators
• Decade-wise comparative analysis with heatmaps and bar charts
• Multi-indicator correlation matrix, pairplots, and variance inflation factor (VIF) checks
• Structural break detection and regime shift visualization
• Trade balance surplus/deficit classification and trade openness as a GDP integration metric

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Architecture (ASCII diagram)

  [Raw CSV Dataset (Iran Economic Indicators 1960–2024, Kaggle)]
        │
        ▼
[Pandas DataFrame]
  ├─ Exploration: df.info(), dtypes, sample(10), column listing
  └─ Cleaning: drop unnamed index column

[EDA — 12 Analytical Sections]
  ├─ 1. Long-term GDP growth story
  │     ├─ GDP over time (time series)
  │     ├─ Boom vs recession (GDP growth % with axhline at 0)
  │     ├─ Crisis year scatter (negative growth years highlighted)
  │     ├─ 10-year rolling mean (stability vs volatility)
  │     ├─ Structural break detection (decade vertical lines)
  │     └─ Decade-wise average GDP growth (bar chart)
  │
  ├─ 2. GDP vs GDP per Capita (Population effect)
  │     ├─ Dual-axis time series (GDP + per capita)
  │     ├─ Population growth over time
  │     ├─ Divergence chart (standard + log scale)
  │     ├─ Scatter: GDP vs GDP per capita (non-linear relationship)
  │     └─ Decade-wise prosperity comparison
  │
  ├─ 3. Inflation dynamics & economic stress
  │     ├─ Inflation rate over time
  │     ├─ High-inflation years highlighted (>20% threshold)
  │     ├─ 10-year rolling inflation mean
  │     ├─ Inflation spikes vs GDP growth overlay
  │     ├─ Decade-wise boxplot (volatility spread)
  │     └─ Inflation distribution histogram
  │
  ├─ 4. Exchange rate stability vs growth
  │     ├─ Official exchange rate over time
  │     ├─ Annual % change (pct_change) — 1750%+ spike in 1993–95
  │     ├─ Scatter: exchange rate change vs inflation
  │     ├─ Overlay: currency devaluation vs GDP growth
  │     ├─ Decade-wise exchange rate volatility (boxplot)
  │     └─ Scatter: exchange rate level vs GDP growth
  │
  ├─ 5. Population growth pressure
  │     ├─ Total population over time
  │     ├─ Population growth rate trend
  │     ├─ 10-year rolling mean (declining growth signal)
  │     ├─ Economic growth vs population growth overlay
  │     ├─ GDP per capita vs population growth scatter
  │     ├─ Sustainability indicator: GDP growth − population growth
  │     └─ Decade-wise population comparison
  │
  ├─ 6. Trade behaviour & global integration
  │     ├─ Exports vs imports over time
  │     ├─ Trade openness ratio (% of GDP)
  │     ├─ Trade expansion vs contraction phases
  │     ├─ Trade dependency vs GDP growth
  │     ├─ Trade response during economic crises
  │     ├─ Export–import balance
  │     └─ Decade-wise trade openness
  │
  ├─ 7. Trade balance evolution
  │     ├─ Trade balance over time
  │     ├─ Surplus vs deficit years highlighted
  │     ├─ Trade balance vs GDP growth
  │     ├─ 5-year rolling average volatility
  │     └─ Decade-wise average trade balance
  │
  ├─ 8. Industrial contribution to GDP
  │     ├─ Industry share of GDP over time
  │     ├─ Rolling average structural analysis
  │     ├─ Industry share vs GDP growth
  │     ├─ Decade-wise volatility boxplot
  │     ├─ Industry growth vs economic shocks
  │     └─ Decade-wise average industry share
  │
  ├─ 9. Correlation & dependency analysis
  │     ├─ Full correlation heatmap
  │     ├─ GDP growth vs strongest driver indicators
  │     ├─ Inflation vs exchange rate correlation
  │     ├─ Trade openness vs per capita GDP
  │     ├─ Pairplot of key indicators
  │     └─ Multicollinearity check (VIF)
  │
  ├─ 10. Volatility & stability analysis
  │     ├─ Rolling standard deviation over time
  │     ├─ GDP growth volatility vs inflation volatility
  │     ├─ Exchange rate volatility
  │     ├─ Decade-wise average volatility
  │     ├─ Volatility heatmap across indicators
  │     └─ Crisis year highlights
  │
  ├─ 11. Decade-wise comparative analysis
  │     ├─ Avg GDP growth, inflation, trade openness, industry share by decade
  │     ├─ Combined multi-indicator decade comparison
  │     └─ Heatmap of decade-level averages
  │
  └─ 12. Anomaly & crisis detection
        ├─ Z-score based anomaly flagging across key indicators
        ├─ GDP growth anomaly plot
        ├─ Inflation anomaly plot
        ├─ Trade balance anomaly plot
        ├─ Multi-indicator anomaly heatmap
        └─ Top crisis years ranking

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Analysis breakdown

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Tech stack

Tech stack

Languages & Libraries

• Python
• NumPy
• Pandas
• seaborn
• Matplotlib, Seaborn
• warnings (suppressed)

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Dataset

 ```    
**Source** : Kaggle — Iran Economic Indicators 1960–2024 
**Rows** : 60+ annual records 
**Key columns** : GDP_Current_USD, GDP_Growth_Percent, GDP_Per_Capita_USD, Inflation_Rate_Percent, Official_Exchange_Rate, Population_Total, Population_Growth_Percent, Trade_Openness, Industry_Value_Added_Percent 
 ```

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How to run

bash
# Install dependencies
pip install numpy pandas matplotlib seaborn

# Launch the notebook
jupyter notebook iran-economy-deep-analysis-final-version.ipynb

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Dataset access

  Dataset available on Kaggle: 'Iran Economic Indicators 1960–2024'
Path used in notebook: '/kaggle/input/iran-economic-indicators-1960-2024/data.csv